President Trump has long enjoyed his reputation as a maximalist, issuing large demands, causing crises and high pressure negotiations.
But more and more often, he ends up back down and simply declares victory. His enemies appear to sharpen their tactics based on Trump’s patterns and his non-secondary trade attitude towards diplomacy.
Dynamics have been unfolding repeatedly as Trump retreated to varying degrees about plans to turn Gaza into the “Middle Eastern Riviera,” as he transforms Canada into the 51st state, beat China, and submits to tariffs.
Currently, two very different tests are appearing. One is to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and security by a ceasefire, where Trump stands, along with America’s biggest ally, or Russian President Vladimir V. Putin. The other might decide, along with Iran, if he really stands aside and tries to get Israel to bomb Iran, or if despite the risks he can’t cut through the path of Iran if he can’t extract a better nuclear deal than what President Barack Obama has got.
Both of these negotiations have no numerical symmetry in tariff negotiations. Thousands, if not millions, are potentially at risk. Both involve decades of complaints dating back to the Iranian revolution and the division of the Soviet Union.
And Russia and Iran appear to be honing their strategy after seeing Trump take action. Envoys from these countries have suggested to Trump negotiator Steve Witkoff that Americans may have investment opportunities if the US eases that demand. Witkoff, like Trump, has a real estate history.
Envoys from Russia and Iran have suggested to Trump negotiator Steve Witkov that Americans may have investment opportunities if the US eases its demand.
China has proven to be an interesting example of Trump taking the biggest approach. And again, Beijing seemed to be learning by watching Trump’s patterns.
When Trump placed tariffs on Chinese-made goods more than a month ago, he warned Beijing leaders and leaders from other countries on the receiving end of his “mutual” tariffs that he would not “retaliate.” The rebellion was useless. The best deals come to those who have appeared early in Washington, along with a list of concessions.
Chinese President Xi Jinping ignored his advice. He coincided with the tariffs and again matched. This is until China’s imports to the US reach 145% of the eye-opening figures. For five weeks, Xi followed the path towards mutually guaranteed economic destruction. Inflation and shortages are looming. The cargo ship turned around.
Trump took about 40 days to retreat, agreeing to the first 30% tariffs – still high enough to punish – there were no consequential Chinese concessions other than an agreement to settle things over the next 90 days.
The climb was so impressive that it sparked a predictable market rally, Trump’s ultimate approval measure.
But it also revealed Washington’s goals. Since Trump began slamming tariffs on US enemies and allies, central questions have come into contact with him. Was tariffs a mechanism in the president’s mind to restructure global trading orders? Even producing products to force America to reindustrialize, is it little pointless to make it in America? Or does he imagine a new source of income aimed at supplementing taxes to pay a government that has spent much more than it has been adopted over 30 years?
At various moments, Trump suggests that all three are playing. But it’s clear that what he’s really excited about is using tariffs as a hug, and that even if it’s a hassle for consumers, the minimum 10% tariff on all foreign goods looks like a bargain. Everything above that number is very negotiable.
“It appears that President Trump is at a short-term drive to use the economic measures necessary to bring his trading partners to the table,” said Michael B. Fromman, who served as US trade representative under Obama. “There are a lot of negotiations going on and the concept of a plan is agreed,” he said.
“The question is what ends and what costs,” he asked Fromman, now chairman of the Foreign Relations Council. “Will his negotiation tactics cause lasting damage, including making it more difficult for our partners to work with us on other important priorities that undermine potential economic victory?”
In China, Treasury Secretary Scott Becent set some narrow goals. This sounded very well as the Biden administration’s rationale for placing export controls on chips and chip manufacturing equipment heading towards China.
“We don’t want generalized decoupling from China,” Bescent said Monday on CNBC. “But what we want is decoupling strategic essentials.”
He now has 90 days to resolve what it looks like and see if China will crack down on fentanyl exporters further.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent has set several narrow targets for negotiations with China.
These talks will be dragged into the summer, but the 90 days will expire unless extended to mid-August, but key moments may come in negotiations between Russia and Iran.
Over the weekend, Trump reluctantly joined in another, huge demand. This is for Russia. It was issued by the top European leaders when they visited Kiev after they called the US president and agreed to the language. It gave Russia until Monday to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.
Putin ignored the deadline and bet he would pay a little. Instead, he ordered a drone attack on Ukraine and offered a negotiation session with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday. Trump abandoned the condition that a ceasefire had to come first and jumped up to support the idea that Ukraine had not negotiated while facing the onslaught of Russia.
Trump also offered to show up to himself in consultation as he walked his way home from the Middle East on Monday. But it seems unlikely that Putin will be there, reducing his appeal. On Tuesday, Trump said he would send Marco Rubio, and now takes on dual roles as Secretary of State and national security adviser, taking Ukrainian advisers Witkov and Keith Kellogg.
Putin clearly feels that Trump doesn’t care much about the holiness of Ukraine’s borders, or even the person responsible for the invasion. (Suddenly after taking office, Trump claimed that Ukraine itself was responsible and was contributing to the late February explosion with President Volodymea Zelensky in an oval office.)
Much of the conversation in Istanbul will focus on the control of the territory that Russia currently occupy, whether Ukraine must fundamentally reduce its weapons, and whether NATO will need to retract both the troops and weapons near the Russian border. Zelensky vowed to attend, increasing the chances of a standoff. Russian expert and longtime diplomat Stephen Sestanovic wrote a book entitled “Maximalist” a decade ago, pointed out after a recent trip to Ukraine since the debate of the oval office, “Ukrainians have found ways to combine flexibility and flexibility and make it work.”
But recently, Putin, who joined the program, has dropped hints on Russian-American joint energy and mining operations, tempting him to go beyond the search for the Nobel Peace Prize and get something from the Ukrainian agreement. In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Witkoff sounded excited by the idea.
Now, Iranians are trying similar tactics.
“We believe we cannot enrich, we cannot have centrifuges,” Witkov said in an interview with Breitbart last week after weeks of conflicting statements about whether Iran can continue to enrich uranium, which can fuel nuclear weapons.
The demand seemed pretty clear.
However, Iranians argue that Witkov had taken a much more gentle approach in the negotiation room last weekend, not ruled out allowing nuclear activities in Iran. Meanwhile, Iranians have launched floating ideas for a nuclear energy joint venture between the United States and perhaps their region’s rival, Saudi Arabia, according to several Iranians and other officials. The key is that all sanctions will be lifted and Iran will maintain some of the capabilities that Witkov and recently Trump have to be avoided or dismantled.
On Tuesday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital, Trump said Iran “providing a new path and a much better path to a future filled with much better hope.” He then said: “It’s the time they choose.”
