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“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen,” said Vladimir Ilnih Lenin, the revolutionary leader of Russia. The diplomatic whirlwind surrounding President Donald Trump this week suggests that the old Bolsheviks may have been in something.
For a protectionist president who has always committed to putting America first, these days he has made the world stage best and busy.
He and his team made business deals in the Gulf. Sanctions lifted in Syria. Hamas negotiated the release of US citizens. Ended the military strike at the Houthi fighter jet in Yemen. Greatly reduced US tariffs in China. He ordered Ukraine to meet with Russia in Turkey. They continued quiet negotiations with Iran over a nuclear deal. And even claimed responsibility for mediating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan…
The pace is out of breath, and allies and enemies are likewise struggling to catch up as the US diplomacy bandwagon has fallen from problem to problem.
“It’s just amazing!” he told one of the London-based ambassadors. “It’s almost impossible to grasp everything ongoing.”
So, what is happening? What did you learn about the US President’s emerging foreign policy during this desperate week? Is there anything closer to Trump’s doctrine? Or is this just a coincidence of global events?
Saudi Arabia’s dignity and flattery
Perhaps a good place to start is a visit to the Gulf where the president set his vision for a world of interstate relations based on trade rather than war. In his speech in Riyadh, Trump said he wants “commerce, not chaos” in regions in the Middle East that “export technology, not terrorism.”
He was a refreshing and practical merchandising prospect in which states, a world where profits can bring peace, engaged in business transactions with mutual interests.
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In Saudi Arabia, Trump has signed a deal claimed by the White House, representing a $600 million investment in the US
As he enjoyed the flattering of the Saudi hosts and observance of visiting officials, the president signed with his fat felt-tip pen – a contract that the White House represents a $600 million investment in the United States.
This was a card of all his power. He was quickly won and praised and rewarded.
Some diplomats personally questioned the value of various memorandums of understanding. But the show was more important than material, they said.
“Our businessless” approach
What Trump’s speech lacked was a reference to the possibility of collective action by the United States and other countries. There is no talk of multilateral cooperation on the threat of climate change, and there is no concern about democratic or human rights challenges in the region. This was almost completely unexplained regarding ideology or value, except that it dismissed its importance.
Rather, he used his speech to Saudi leaders to make his most clear arguments against Western interventionism of the past, attacking what he called “the state builder and neoconservative” as “giving lectures on how to live and how to govern one’s own problems.”
To the applause of his Arab audience, he said these “Western interventions” “destroyed more countries than they built,” and “too many American presidents suffer from the notion that it is our job to examine the souls of foreign leaders and use our policies to soften justice for their sins.
“I believe it is God’s job to sit in judgment. My job is to protect America.”
AFP via Getty Images
“My job is to protect America,” Trump told the audience this week.
Resisting intervention was on display on the recent day leading up to the battle between India and Pakistan. In the past, the United States has often played a key role in ending military conflicts in the subcontinent. However, the Trump White House was initially cautious about getting involved.
Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the fighting “is essentially none of our business…we can’t control these countries.”
Eventually, both he and Secretary of State Marco Rubio called and pressured them to break away from both nuclear power. The same was true of other countries.
When a ceasefire was agreed, Trump claimed that our diplomacy brokered the deal. However, it was completely dismissed by Indian diplomats who claimed it was a bilateral ceasefire.
The advantages of policy in one man’s hands
Trump’s centrality towards US foreign policy has also been revealed this week. This is not just a simple truth. In the show, the lack of involvement in other parts of the US government has traditionally helped shape decisions overseas.
To meet Syrian new president and former jihadist Ahmed Alshara, he makes the president’s extraordinary decision and lifts sanctions in Syria. This demonstrated the potential advantage of holding foreign policy in one man’s hands. It was a decisive and bold step. And it was clearly a personal decision by the president after heavy lobbying by both Türkiye and Saudi Arabia.
Some diplomats were seen as quid proquo for investment transactions with diplomatic fawns that Trump received in Riyadh. This decision not only surprised many people in the region, but also many people in the US government.
The diplomat said the State Department is reluctant to lift sanctions, wants to maintain leverage of the new Syrian government, fearing it will not be enough to protect minorities and tackle foreign fighter jets.
Diplomats say this pattern of impulsive decision-making without the wider internal government discussion is common in the White House. The outcome, they say, is not necessarily positive.
AFP via Getty Images
After sanctions are lifted, thanking Saudi Arabia and the US and Damascus sign
This is partly due to Trump’s inconsistency (or simply changing his mind).
Decide this week to sign a contract with China to reduce tariffs on trade with the US. A few weeks ago, Trump imposed a 145% tariff on Beijing with a bloody warning of retaliation. The Chinese retaliated, the markets plummeted, and American businesses warned of the dire consequences.
So in Geneva, US officials climbed and most tariffs on China were reduced to 30%. This follows a pattern that is now familiar to you. Issues the biggest demands, worsens, negotiates, climbs, declare victory.
Limitations of his “art of trading”
The problem is that this “art of trade” strategy may tackle easily reversible decisions such as tariffs. It is difficult to apply to long-term diplomatic challenges such as war.
Become Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this regard, Trump’s policy was fluid to put it gently. And this week was an example.
Last Saturday, British, French, Poland and German leaders visited Kiev to show support for Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky. And in a group call with Trump on French President Emmanuel Macron’s phone, they wrote about their strategy of agreeing to Russia face a 30-day ceasefire or even more severe sanctions.
This was also Trump’s policy. The day before he wrote on social media: “If the ceasefire is not respected, the US and its partners will impose further sanctions.” However, on Sunday, President Vladimir Putin suggested that there should be direct consultations between Turkish Ukraine and Russia on Thursday instead. Trump quickly followed this, supporting the strategy he agreed to with European leaders a day ago.
AFP via Getty Images
Some diplomats say they are confused by Trump’s approach to war in Ukraine. (Photo with Putin in 2019)
“Ukraine should immediately agree to (these talks),” he wrote on social media. “We are beginning to doubt Ukraine will make a deal with Putin.”
Then on Thursday, Trump changed his position again and said the deal would only take place if he and Putin met in person.
This confuses some diplomats. “Doesn’t he really know what he wants to do about the war in Ukraine?” one person told me. “Or does he know what might provide the fastest possible resolution?”
Snubs to Netanyahu?
Two other decisions fell this week to this inexplicable mix. First, Trump agreed to a ceasefire after bombing Yemeni Hooty fighter jets for almost two months. There were questions about the effectiveness of the extremely expensive airstrikes and the president’s appetite for long military operations. He repeatedly spoke about how much he hates war.
Second, Trump envoy Steve Witkov held a fourth round of consultations with Iran on efforts to curb their nuclear ambitions. Skeptics fear it is very modest, but both sides hint that trade is possible. Talks of joint US-Israel military action against Iran appear to have been dissipated.
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According to some onlookers, Netanyahu was snatched by Trump this week
What brings together both issues is that the United States was directly at odds with Israel’s wishes. Benjamin Netanyahu may have been the first world leader to be invited to an oval office after Trump took office, but recently he appears to have been snubled. Trump toured the Middle East without visiting Israel. He lifted sanctions against Syria without Israeli support. His Houthi ceasefire came days after the group attacked Tel Aviv airport.
The diplomats are afraid of Netanyahu’s reaction. Can a brave prime minister respond with a more aggressive military operation in Gaza?
Capitalism to overcome conflict
So, how much has changed after this week of diplomatic sudden and fierceness? Probably less than it appears.
Due to all the glamour of Trump’s tour through the Middle East, the fighting and humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains unresolved. A fresh Israeli attack appears to be imminent. One of Trump’s main objectives, normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia – remains far away.
For all the stories about ending the war in Ukraine, the chances of guns being silent are not that great. Putin’s ambitions do not seem to change. And there is still a major global market volatility for all transactions to reduce US tariffs either in the UK or China.
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Despite transactions to reduce tariffs on us, there is still a great instability in the global market
We have a clear view of Trump’s global ideology. It is optimistic that capitalism can overcome conflict. Also, in his hurry, about his desire to clear his diplomatic decks in the Middle East, Ukraine and the subcontinent, he can focus on his main interest, namely China.
But that may prove elusive ambitions. If there are weeks where decades have happened, there are weeks where nothing happens.
Top Picture Credit: Getty Images
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