Ukraine began its day at once with the diplomacy of sails.
We have finally agreed to the mineral trade “framework” with Washington. A contract in which the US invests in Ukraine’s recovery in exchange for a percentage of the country’s future profits from natural resources, energy infrastructure, and oil and gas.
There was also a first round of peace negotiations between American, European and Ukrainian officials in Paris.
That was until US President Donald Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio threatened to break free from brokering a ceasefire until progress soon emerged.
Ukraine was expected to see a growing American impatience over Russia leading to further sanctions in Moscow. Instead, the threat of the US washing hands of ongoing peace efforts is more suited to the Kremlin than Kiev.
The consensus is that the collective weight of Ukraine and its European allies is still insufficient to counter Russian invasion in the long term. Despite continuing its quest to conquer and occupy as many Ukraine as possible, Moscow claims it is still striving for peace.
What it did is launch some of the most deadly missile strikes against civilians these days. In the northeastern Khalkiv, more than 100 people were injured and one died after three attacked a residential area in the city.
However, these attacks have not brought little criticism from the White House. The White House continues to use more sticks with Kiev and carrots with Moscow by improving relations by suspending military aid.
Kiev agreed to a full ceasefire after the US suspended sharing military aid and intelligence news. Moscow has not bent from the ongoing maximalist demands of more Ukrainian territory and the fall of President Voldymir Zelensky. It’s hard to see how this threat brings a breakthrough.
In the calm, open seas of the Black Sea, Mikairo orders his US naval patrol ship. As we stand on the bridge I ask him if he feels he is fighting for Europe and his country.
“If Russia occupys all of Ukraine, who knows?” he answers. “In ten or fifteen years, Russia will go to Estonia, the Baltic states, and Poland, Lithuania, which is very clear.”
The US military aid to Ukraine gradually runs out. Packages will not be put out before Congress or locked up by the fascinating powers of the President.
If Washington turns his back on these peace efforts, Ukraine will depend on European allies to counter Russia’s continued invasion. The consensus is that collective weight is insufficient in the long term.
This series of Ukraine-controlled coastlines in Kiev, has a success story. The launch of drones produced in the West and in the country forced the Russian fleet and restored the main transport lanes.
But as President Zelensky admits, the problem of defending the military is the reality of the battlefield lost to a wider audience.
Despite the US and Ukraine approaching this mineral trade, the Trump administration’s threat makes it look like a business venture.
It also raises greater questions about whether it will care about Washington, which controls Ukraine in the long run, as long as the US commercial interests are protected.
