Beneath the stimulating smell of tear gas in the night sky in Istanbul, there is something else’s hint – the whim of panic by longtime Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
One of his rivals is placed behind the bar – so far, he’s been very familiar.
But the imprisonment of Istanbul’s popular mayor Ekrem Imamogul suggests that President Erdogan is rattling. The mayor’s opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has summoned a vast crowd on the streets, and certainly hopes.
Ekrem Imamogul always turned out wise, even if he was preparing to be detained – is the main rival of Turkey’s increasingly authoritarian leader. He was scheduled to be held by 2028, so he was able to replace him in the presidential election.
But this is more than a line about the fate of the mayor of Istanbul – he may be, but charismatic.
Freedom and democracy are steadily eroded during the Erdogan era. Many call this a halt and see it as an opportunity to stop all descent into dictatorships – if it’s not too late.
And they come out every night with the risks of riot police and tear gas and rubber bullets, bans on demonstrations, closure of roads and bridges, and detention.
To date, more than 1,000 people have been detained and counted (in just five days). That shows how easy it is to be arrested here.
It claims that Turkey is a functional democracy – and at face value it is. There will be an election. Voters usually turnout is high – Turks value their right to vote and vote. The votes were mostly fair in their own right back then.
The problem is that it happens away from the polling station.
Opposition politicians could be jailed. Critics threatened. The protesters were arrested. The media is primarily controlled by the government. A tweet that ridicules the president could cause you to land in a cell. By the time the day of votes comes, there is a tsunami of pro-government reporting, and the opposition parties are struggling to catch their eye.
Ekrem Imamoglu is the type of politician who can get through all this and reach voters. He is media-savvy and has been elected three times as mayor of Istanbul. He is now accused of embezzlement, takes bribery and runs a criminal organization.
If convicted, he could be barred from standing in the presidential race. He has already sued his previous conviction and two years in prison for insulting election authorities.
Turkey argues that its courts are independent and merely obey the law. Human rights activists and independent analysts here scoff at the idea.
Campaign Group Human Rights Watch said the mayor’s detention, along with about 100 other municipalities and politicians, was “a politically motivated move to curb legitimate political activity.” In the past, it has criticized Türkiye’s “court political decisions.”
In X’s post, where he has 9.6 million followers, Imamoguru said the lawsuit against him was “black stains against our democracy,” saying, “I’m tall.
That may be what 71-year-old Erdogan might be afraid – the younger 53-year-old enemy is also appealing to conservative Turkish voters, ready for a long battle.
So, what’s going to happen now?
The protest could gain momentum and continue to spread. It would pose a serious challenge for Erdogan. How long will it take for his heavily armed security forces to crack down on even more intensely? How long does it take for someone to lose their life in protest? Every Strongman administration has a breakpoint and could come with a single bullet.
The opposition intends to maintain pressure and demonstrations.
But after his 20 years at the top, Erdogan still has a lot of loyal supporters. He appears to be determined to control and stick to virtually every lever of power. He banks the bank with a demonstration that will pick out over time.
The president and his ruling AK party hope protesters will get tired and worry about destroying inflation (39% in February), and hope that the value of Lira in Turkey, rather than free speech or democracy, will decline.
We will test the sustainability of both sides for the next few days and weeks. But if there are lessons to learn from street protests in other authoritarian countries, a quick breakthrough appears unlikely.
