The first US and Iran meeting on Saturday on the expanding nuclear programme showed the seriousness of the purpose of avoiding what either side wanted, and the efforts to avoid another war in the Middle East. They will talk again next Saturday, but the hard work is ahead as hardliners from both countries and Israeli hardliners are expected to acknowledge at any deal at best.
These talks are more urgent when the first nuclear deal reached in 2015 is spurred by Iran’s desire to remove punishment of economic sanctions. Iran is still hoping for economic relief as Israel hit and proxies in the region fell. But the Islamic Republic itself is under threat, and Trump, who escaped from the initial deal because he thought it was too weak, understands that Iran may not be bluffing about “bombing things they’ve never seen before.”
And Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave his negotiators one last opportunity to exchange Iran’s nuclear ambitions for lasting security.
The consultations in Oman also promised some degree of efficiency. The 2015 deal was hit between Iran and six countries. It took two years, two permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, with the European Union acting as intermediaries.
This time, the talks are bilateral, with not only Europeans but also Russia and China watching the sidelines. And while the United States remains “great Satan” to Ayatollah Khamenei, it also holds the key to restrain Israel and ensuring a lasting reconciliation. Iran claimed indirect talks through Oman, and Trump insisted on a direct meeting, but both countries were able to fudge the issue.
“This is just as good a start as it gets,” said Ali Vez, Iran project director for International Crisis Group. “They may have stumbled, but they agreed to meet again, and finally we met together and agreed to the ultimate purpose.”
Importantly, Trump and Witkov showed that their real proceeds ensure that Iran cannot build nuclear weapons despite the harsh demands from Trump officials before talks that they would completely dismantle its nuclear program and abandon its missile program and support for regional commissioners.
Iran has made it clear that such a wide range of demands would render it vulnerable and end consultations before they begin. So limiting the goal to ensure that Iran will never be able to build a nuclear bomb would greatly increase the chances of successful consultations if the regime clings to it.
“The Iranians have prepared for more than just icebreakers, but they are expected to hear firsthand what the actual US revenue is, in the hopes of breaking the logjam with the US,” said Vali Nasr, professor of advanced international studies at Johns Hopkins. “If it’s not a weapon, they can negotiate levels of enrichment, testing, etc. But Iran doesn’t want to be in a situation where they can’t deliver more sanctions or wars and take risks,” he said. “It’s pretty clear what Iran wants: reliable sanctions relief and a sticky deal.”
Iran claims its nuclear program is exclusively for civilians, but it enriched enough uranium to weapons-grade quality to make at least six bombs, according to data from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which implements the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which has been signed by Iran.
Despite his distrust of Trump, Iranians believe he can better ensure the sustainability of his own Republican hardliners and confronting deals, Nasr said. The Iranians never trusted President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programmes of Chatham House, said: She said there were positive statements from both sides around the plan to move forward, with “mutual understanding of the necessary urgency, opportunities presented, and signs of pragmatism from both sides.”
She then added, “Of course the hard ones are first.”
Serious transactions are extremely complicated, technical and time-consuming. They also need to survive efforts to undermine talks between the two countries and Israeli hardliners. Israel, which opposed the 2015 deal, wants Iran’s more comprehensive disarmament, and now continues to talk about the need to hit it militarily when the regime is weak and its air force is severely compromised by Israeli airstrikes.
Iran has vowed to destroy Israel in the past, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he hopes Iran can no longer enrich uranium at all. Israel wants to seriously inflict on Iranian proxies, including Hamas in Lebanon and Hezbollah, citing the October 2023 attack on Hamas, and to assure that Iran cannot rebuild them.
However, Iran may also be encouraged that Trump has announced consultations at the elliptical office next to Netanyahu. Iran “sees that he does not own a strong signal from Trump,” Nasr said.
The hope is that the next meeting can generate a tentative agreement. This gives both sides confidence to move forward, as long as consultations continue. Iran could include allowing more testing in return for freezing uranium enrichment and allowing Washington to halt some of its “maximum pressure” sanctions.
Iran is likely to insist on a gradual process that takes years, Nasr said, “to help the deal increase its roots before anyone else takes office and tries to get it back.” Also, longer processes provide Iran with more security.
Still, Iran has no reason to extend consultations. “Iran’s leverage is nuclear enrichment and more time won’t give them more leverage,” Vaez said. And then there’s the “snapback sanctions time bomb.”
These sanctions suspended under the 2015 contract can be recovered if the signatories (in this case, Europeans) determine that one has no new deals or significant progress. However, it must occur before October 18th, when the ability of “snapback” expires. Officials are investigating whether Europeans can delay that deadline, but the mechanisms for doing so are unclear.
In any case, analysts agree, but Iran does not want to be blamed for failing these consultations. If they fail and the war continues, the administration hopes that they can condemn America’s poor and malice.
So, if they can make a deal, Iran wants this time to ensure it will bring about commercial involvement in a durable, meaningful, long-term way, Vakir said. Iran would want to know “how Trump protects things other presidents can’t do.”
And she said she wants to know what the US can guarantee that Iran can provide Israel’s security and massive Middle East stability.
“Trades must be mutually beneficial, but there needs to be a lot of trust and accountability in line with the ways that both parties don’t have at the moment,” she said.
