Nick Thorpe
BBC Budapest correspondent
BBC
There is a popular proverb for Hungarians, “Visszanyal a fagyi.” Translation: “Ice cream is retreating.” In other words, be careful, because what you devour may enjoy devouring you.
Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban has enthusiastically attacked the liberal worldview for at least 20 years, transforming the country into what variously called a “Christian Freedom” nation.
Meanwhile, he attracted worshipers around the world, including US vice president J.D. Vance and Georgia Prime Minister Irakli Kobakitze. US President Donald Trump calls Orban “smart” and “tough guy.”
“One of the most respected men, they call him a strong man,” Trump said in September 2024.
Advances the next Hungarian elections in April 2026, the LGBTQ community appears to be one of Orban’s targets. His Fidesz party rubber has engraved a new law that sought to prohibit pride from moving forward. Still, between 100,000 and 200,000 people were discovered last month. This is up from just 35,000 last year.
But see huge crowds marching through Budapest to celebrate gay pride, freedom of speech, and rights of assembly – everything against the ban – many wonders: can a liberal worldview be bitten?
Attila Kissvenedok via Getty
Thousands of people have been found to be proud against the ban for Budapest
And in a way, it’s a wrong question in itself. Orban’s power is certainly under threat, but it’s not in the way.
Because the real challenge comes from the centre on the right, not from the liberal left.
A surprising challenger from Orban’s own circle
Peter Magyall, 44, previously Orban’s own circle, appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024.
This followed a scandal involving the decision to forgive a man convicted of hiding the sexual abuse of a child that caused President Katalin Novak to resign on live television. Justice Minister Judit Balga (Magyaru’s ex-wife) also resigned – and the scandal hit Orban’s claim that it represents traditional family values.
Magyar gave a lengthy interview with the flagship opposition YouTube channel Partizan, blowing up what he called the governing party’s nepotism and corruption.
Janos Kummer/Getty Images
Peter Magyall appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024
Robert Puser, an opposition activist who leads a new nonpartisan initiative called the Civic Resistance, says Magyaru is stomping carefully in certain quarters of media attempting to portray Fides officials and him as a liberal or leftist.
He argues that Magyaru is trying to avoid alienating conservative country bases. And he created a powerful story of himself – of a collapsed Hungary.
Most national polls put Tisa, the main opposition in Hungary, between 9% and 18%, than the Orban party led by Magyaru. Only one, the Pro-Government Thinktank Viewpoint Institute is pushing Fidesz narrowly forward.
State hospitals, state schools and state railways are all used against Orban by Magyaru and his party. Now, Orban’s long-standingly praised overseas playbook is beginning to fail at home. And Hungary is closer than ever to banish men who have ruled it for the past 15 years.
Orban’s proven strategy
Orban has been in power for 19 of the 35 years since the collapse of communism in 1990, becoming one of the EU’s most experienced leaders. In the early 1990s, Fides broke away from his liberal roots, and Orban instilled a new, conservative nationalist right-wing identity.
In 2015, many people traveled to Europe and sought asylum, which Orban called it part of a “moving movement consisting of economic migrants, refugees and foreign fighters.” He has opposed military support for Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and has also opposed bids for Ukraine’s EU membership.
The cornerstone of Orban’s Playbook was his ability to identify what his voters feared. This was true for landslide victories in 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022.
Reuters/Lisa Lautner
Viktor Orban lost power in 2002 and returned to the office in 2010
A publicus Agency poll conducted on June 23-25 showed 45% of people supported the Pride March in Budapest, while 48% opposed it. But gathering your camp behind was a flag, as only 8% of Fidesz voters approved it.
Since the march, Fides’ supporters have shared provocative images from Budapest Pride. This includes the story of a man arrested by police for masturbating in public.
Folk singer Marianna Mayorusi, whose song was performed at the drag queen show at the Pride event after the event, said, “As a performer, I’m deeply confused that I have no right to prevent anyone from doing this to my voice.” Orban has expressed support for her on Facebook.
In 2022, the government organized a referendum on child protection to coincide with the general election. The questions include: “Do you support public school children in allowing them to participate in sexually oriented classes without parental consent?” and “Do you support promoting gender reallocation for minors?”
A total of 3.7 million Hungarians participated, with the majority of votes “No.” Since then, government officials have cited the results as evidence that the referendum opposes what pride symbolizes.
The winner takes everything
Another key to Orban’s Playbook is that the winner takes it all. Orban lost power in 2002 and took office in 2010, with the new election law of 2011 reducing the parliament from 386 to 199 seats, abolishing the second round of elections, effectively leading the vote to the strongest party.
Fractis opposition fought for the crumbs, but Fides took the cake. They won 45% of the vote in 2014 and converted to 67% of Congress seats. Previous proportional representation systems have been replaced by something similar to the first pass system, as used in the UK.
He also appointed a Fides-friendly judge to the Constitution and the Supreme Court.
Tim Sloan via Getty/AFP
Orban’s defeat, which has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, will be monumental
In 2014 he said he was building a “illiberal state.”
Orban is still struggling to find the right name for his invention. The philosopher Andras Ranci, a philosopher, broadly considers strong influence in the Prime Minister, calls it “political realism… moralizing the leftists so much, based on experience rather than utopia.”
How he beat the world leader
Orban’s rules by bullet points, a simple message culled from an unpublished opinion survey commissioned by his government examines concern for the public. Government praise media, social media and national signs will then serve as echo chambers for these messages.
While some leaders abroad appear to praise his approach, many Maga Republicans love Orban to stand up to a “awakening” culture.
Reuters/Carlos Baria
Trump said of Orban: “They call him a strong man. He’s a tough guy.”
The Slovakia and Georgian Prime Ministers are also seemingly solid worshipers, as are Alice Weidel (German Alternative), Geort Wilder (Dutch Party Freedom), and Herbert Kickle (Austrian Freedom Party).
Orban has instilled “new confidence” in his country folk, suggesting that Ransi has gone through centuries of foreign control. “This country is getting stronger and I want to believe that we are not inferior to other countries.”
However, once he reaches his reputation abroad, the carpet appears to be pulled from under the feet of his house.
Are cracks starting to appear?
Peter Magyall patrolled the country almost continuously, attacking the government over the situation in hospitals where Europe’s lowest railway network and public service wages have failed.
He portrays a large crowd, and visits to hospitals, schools or nursing homes are broadcast live on Facebook, with many tens of thousands of viewers.
“We will rebuild this country together. Brick-made with bricks,” Magyall repeats. “Brick of Brick!” chant the crowd all at once.
A spokesman for Fides dismissed him as a blank “Messiah,” or a traitor of his rank. However, Magyaru gave the public an alternative vision to restore their homeland.
Despite the long history of anti-Hungarian remarks, Orban has begun to make several mistakes, including supporting ultranationalist candidate George Simion in the recent Romanian presidential election. He considered him a useful ally of the European Parliament, sharing Orban’s message that “Christian Europe” was under threat. However, Simion was a surprising loser in the second round of that election.
Unable to stop Orban’s pride suggests a weakening of his powers after the supporters promised that it wouldn’t happen.
Sopa images via Getty
Viktor Orban has dominated Hungary for the past 15 years
But perhaps most seriously, the Hungarian economy, which relies heavily on German markets, particularly German cars manufactured in Hungary, is stagnating. Orban can no longer provide an improved standard of living.
Even András Lánczi, who believes Orban will win the next election, said, “There will be so many conflicts for a long time, inevitably [in power]”The conflict “erodes trust, erodes respect, erodes many positive things that unite that political communities.”
The battle for the soul of Hungarian
Orban’s defeat, which has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, will be monumental.
“Alban can mobilize about two million central voters, but it’s not enough to win the election,” says Zoltan Kizaly, a political analyst close to Fides.
The Tisza Party currently has around 2 million supporters. Over 5 million Hungarians voted in the 2022 election, with 69% voter turnout. Therefore, the April 2026 election may be decided by someone who has not yet been decided.
“We are looking for policy issues that can attract these 500,000 to 1 million voters that are needed to outweigh the opposition,” Kiszelly explained.
In 2022, amid the war in Ukraine, Orban portrayed himself as a “peace” candidate, claiming that the opposition would drag Hungary into the war. It was a successful tactic in the country, often robbing history by foreign forces. In 2026, Ukraine was able to help Orban win again, Kissary believes.
Valerie Shariflin via Getty
He portrays a good relationship with Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil
However, if the war in Ukraine ends by then, Orban’s “political realists” could assert their credibility as the Western leader who warned that Ukraine could not defeat the power of Russia. Or, if the war continued, Fides could bolster his campaign against Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People’s Party (EPP), which supports Ukraine’s Western military supply.
“Olban can present himself once more like a dove of peace,” explains Kissary.
Orban also portrays a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil for Russian consumers – under threat from EU sanctions against Russia. (Orban has not successfully blocked any of its 18 packages of EU sanctions against Russia so far.)
However, his opponents hope that Tissa and Magyaru can maintain their turnout. Opposition activist Puzser believes Tisza will win “sooter or later.”
He describes Hungary as a crossroads. “There is a path that leads to a democratic transition from this semi-naturalist semi-constitutional system,” he argues.
As for Orban, he said in March there was a struggle “for the soul of the Western world.”
Top Image Credit: Anna Money Maker/Leon Neil/Pierre Chrome
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