You don’t want to overreact. And you definitely don’t want to underreact. There is a small grey area there, and it’s a place you want to run early in the fantasy baseball season.
Understood?
no?
Well, I’ll give you a few examples and use the real players who play this week and are actually on your roster. Today we’ll take a look at the three pitchers. One of them is already falling healthy. One person is worried, but he still wants to continue moving for a while.
Walker Buehler, Red Sox @Tex: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – This is a tough lineup, but I think the best thing I can say here is, “At least he wasn’t bombed.” I barely saw Buehler in front of the Statcast camera this spring, but I’m not particularly positive about what I’m going to take. He throws deep arsenals, but his orders seem to have gone down from when he was at his best – and his ones may be lowered on multiple grades. Whatever he found in the reserve in the postseason was not there this time, and he looked like a version of himself that shook the regular season last year. From Jeffrey Springs to Jack Leiter to Max Meyer, if you have an upside-down pitcher on the exemption wire, I would already be willing to drop the Buehler. I wanted to give him a turn or two to see if he could turn the clock back, but after seeing him look exactly like last season, I don’t have much reason to wait for it. Reynaldo Lopez, Braves @SD: 5 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – Well, the speed was there and answered one question from the spring. Unfortunately, the outcome was not really the case. He generated three swing strikes on 94 pitches. He didn’t command the secondary well and only threw 19% of the sliders and curveballs into the strike zone. The Padres tend to be a highly trained lineup, so I might explain that he can’t create a whim with this, but I’ll admit that he’s looking for a reason why it’s not as pessimistic as I would like. I’ve been out for Lopez for most of the league this spring and he needs to show me a lot on the next few starts. Bailey Ober, Twins @Stl: 2.2 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Well, maybe we don’t start Bailey over at the beginning of the season. At least he’s got out of two innings this time. I don’t know, I don’t want to overreact, but I’ve been a bit obscure with Ober since spring and his speed remains from spring. He’s so tall he gets an excellent extension and allows him to play low 90s speeds, but it’s not ideal that modern MLB starters often sit around 90 miles. And the obscure things, what we saw on multiple occasions last season, may lead to an era that is likely and inflated that makes him start these kinds more likely. You haven’t dropped him and you’re probably starting him against the Astros next time, but I don’t feel good about Ober for now.
Understood? There’s a risk of oversimplifying: I don’t think about dropping the top 100 picks until May, no matter how bad they are. I’m certainly not ready to drop anyone from the 150 range right now, but I’m open to moving from already slower round picks if there’s a more interesting option.
How about people like Rafael Devers, you might be asking? Is 12 strikeouts a lot of concern with the appearance of the 16 plate after a delay in spring training to spring training due to shoulder issues?
Here are some good questions and answers: Yes, of course that’s a concern. We’ve been worried for a while since he showed up in spring training, still dealing with shoulder injuries that ended early last season. Devers’ play was clearly affected by these injuries, and the team said there was no structural damage, but the fact that the five-month offseason was not enough to get him over is clearly a concern!
And his bat speed is still slowing down early. Devers was reduced in 2024 at the 60th percentile at bat speed, probably as a result of a late collapse of his swing, from the 69th percentile last season. So far, he is in the 19th percentile. Yes, that’s a concern.
But I’ll let you ask: what are you going to do about it? If you can trade him for a third-caliber player like Manny Machado, then of course that’s fine. It’s not that they’ve lost draft capital in that transaction, but they’ve got a similar ceiling and less questionable player. But you probably haven’t gotten it in return for Devers for now and I’m not selling him to a huge discount – given Suarez’s own performance concerns, it wouldn’t make sense to get someone like Eugenio Suarez for him.
You’re probably stuck in a shelter. If his shoulders don’t go right, it might work. But if it turns out he only took a few weeks to find his swing, if you can get a normal production of Rafael Devers for 5.5 months, sticking to him will go a long way in helping you win your league. Apart from gaining players with similar advantages, I’m stuck with Devers.
So, it’s not really a grey area. It’s pretty clean and simple. I’m not even considering drafting anyone who drafted the first 10 rounds until May. And I wouldn’t even think about trading early round picks for some reason when they get off to a late start. Baseball is a long season and bad weekends happen to everyone.
Needless to say, you should go, but don’t overreact. At this point it’s much better to underreact.
