New German Prime Minister Friedrich Merz is on a high stakes trip to meet President Donald Trump, the first in Washington, DC, as the largest economic leader in the European Union.
When Meltz met Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday, tariffs, defense spending and wars in Ukraine will be high on the agenda.
There is also speculation that Trump’s team, which has repeatedly been heavily on German domestic politics, could expose him to an “ambush” in an oval office.
It’s not the first time.
Both South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Ukrainian Voldimir Zelensky captured every moment, becoming awkward, tense or fiery exchange as world cameras rolled. These moments have become potentially difficult and close walks for leaders visiting cozy diplomatic moments in their oval offices.
Prior to the visit, Berlin expressed confidence that the German side was ready. “I think he’s ready for this meeting,” a spokesman for Friedrich Merz told reporters this week.
Merz – from the central right CDU party – prepared in friendly terms with the US president, according to German media.
The pair exchanges text messages and are even said to be on name basis, as reported by the German ARD News Outlet.
It’s always important that Mertz not discuss too much on German television these days. ”
Mertz’s candid “shooting from the hip” style politics can add an interesting dimension to the meeting. His comments are surprising and can be made headlines – in stark contrast to that of his more cautious predecessors, Olaf Scholz and Angela Merkel.
Though a traditional supporter of transatlantic relations, Mertz raised his eyebrows in February when he declared that the current US administration was “indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
So far, the White House has been characteristically quiet about Mertz’s visit.
It was a gag with a reporter on Monday, and was briefly mentioned only by Press Secretary Caroline Leavbit, but not at all at Tuesday’s briefing at the White House and the State Department.
Sources familiar with the visit suggested several topics that could control the conversation.
Of these, tariffs were one of the most pressing, especially after Trump doubled the import tax on steel and aluminum this week, prompting a warning of EU measures.
The US President also expressed repeated disappointment at the speed of tariff negotiations with the EU. In May, he threatened to collect 50% tariffs on European goods, saying it was “time to play the game in a way that knows how to play the game.”
Trump later betrayed and delayed the tariffs until July 9th. This is a move that his US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, characterized as “on fire” under the EU.
Germany is the largest exporter of the US in the EU, and the country’s businesses are extremely upset about any trade obstacles.
A 69-year-old, reputed billionaire with a corporate background, Merz may be confident in going to the toes with Trump, who often praises him as the perfect “deal maker.”
However, it remains to be seen whether the Prime Minister will be able to smooth the path of EU negotiators.
Constanze Stelzenmüller, a German-US relations expert at the Brookings facility, believes Merz has limited ability to drive negotiations.
“What Meltz is saying is not that we can say XYZ is happening, it’s mood music, even if the major nations aren’t affecting the European Commission,” she explained. “He has to step on delicate lines.”
As for Ukraine, Merz has spoken out in his support of Kiev and criticism of Moscow. Despite repeated talks about ceasefires from the White House recently, they have warned that the battle could be dragged down.
Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Washington, D.C.-based Cato Institute, told the BBC he believes Ukraine will present a “dilemma” to the German side at the conference.
“They will make a real effort to sell frankly that this is the same argument that they have failed to persuade the White House up until now,” he said.
Meltz also calls for stiff EU sanctions against Vladimir Putin and Russia – Trump has not committed to this before, despite lawmakers within his own party expanding their calls to do so.
Earlier this week, Leavitt just said Trump “holds this as a tool in his toolbox if necessary.”
“What’s strange to me is that I haven’t heard what President Trump is saying yet is that there are so many cards in Europe that you can play on its own,” Logan said, pointing to $228 billion in frozen Russian assets held primarily in Belgium.
“It’s just money sitting there,” he said.
From the White House perspective, Ukraine’s defense issues are closely linked to Trump’s demands that NATO allies increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP.
German officials have shown an eagerness to move in that direction, but German targets are at 2%.
“I don’t think they did enough,” Logan added. “And I don’t think they can do enough. The White House needs to know that 5% is not the goal of any of the major European countries reaching.”
“So, will it be the next one?”
Among the potential pitfalls, what German delegations face is the deep negligence that some of Trump’s cabinet, particularly Vice President JD Vance, has for the so-called “firewall” to curb the German alternative Für Deutschland (AFD) party.
“If you run for fear of your voters, there’s nothing America can do for you,” Vance told a security conference in Munich in February.
In Munich, he also met with AFD leader Alice Weidel ahead of the German snap election, and the party came in second place.
Since then, the AFD has been classified as extremist by the German national intelligence agency, and while legal challenges have been put into place, public designations have been suspended.
In the face of it, it is unlikely that Merz would admit that he had previously asked the US government to “stave” Berlin’s domestic politics.
She believes that an oval office “Zelensky style” is unlikely, but Stelzenmuller said that the “worst scenario” is similar to visiting the White House of Ireland’s Prime Minister Missial.
Subsequent contact with AFD or Alice Weidel is considered a provocation by Germany, she added.
“It’s going to be a bilateral defcon 1,” she said.
