Rachel Doerriemay 30, 2025, 07:00 at
Closerachel Doerrie is a specialized data consultant specializing in data communications and modeling. She works in the NHL and consulted with professional teams in North America and Europe. She hosts graph podcasts with her staff and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The 2025 offseason includes a thin group of high-level free agents with an explosive pay cap atmosphere. In other words, Brian Burke’s “big mistake made on July 1st” could be more true than ever.
The most popular free agent this year is Mitch Marner. Behind him is a big gap between Matt Duchen, Sam Bennett, John Tavares, Brock Boser and Aaron Eckbrad. This is in stark contrast to July 1, 2026, when Conor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Achel, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor and John Carlson all may be available. Although it may be extended for some (if not all) current clubs, the list of players available in the next year should make GMS think twice before signing a contract that bloated on July 1, 2025.
The supply of valuable players in 2025 is short, meaning there is a high chance that contract overpayments will occur. To win the Stanley Cup, teams need players to over-perform their contracts and avoid any kind of inefficient contracts. There are benefits to the fact that tax-free state teams have advantages, but many top players overperform the delta between contract value and the “tax-free” discount.
For example, Sam Reinhart could have earned an average annual average of $10 million in the open market, spending $8,625 million to stay with the Florida Panthers. According to my model, Reinhart is worth nearly $12.6 million, so Florida adds $2.6 million in value in addition to the “tax discount.” Similar circumstances exist for Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kuchelov, Thomas Harley and Shea Theodore.
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In non-tax-free states, elite players like Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Seth Jarvis and Nico Hischier have overperformed their contracts. Perhaps the best example is in Edmonton, where Conor McDavid, Leon Draysithle, Evan Bouchard and Zach Heyman have been significantly over-performing contract values. Draisaitl’s Mammoth contract is expected to be still efficient when kicked in. For Evan Bouchard, contracts with AAVs below $9.5 million are considered efficient.
Reports show that Mitch Marner is expected to win $14 million a year, but the efficient contract is expected to be close to $12 million. Sam Bennett, another player represented by Darren Ferris, is rumoured to be seeking it in the $9 million AAV neighborhood. That means a career-best player with 51 points will be signed on par with the elite second line center, producing like a low-end second line or high-end third liner. There is legitimate debate about Marner’s regular season value and Bennett’s playoff value, but teams hoping to argue can’t afford to pay those players more than 10%.
Given the Toronto cap structure, Marner’s expansion is unlikely to bring about long-term success, as it would be forbidden to balance the lineup. If Marner wants to play and win on a competing team, contract efficiency is key. If you apply the same efficiency of a Draisaitl contract that is comparable to that used by Marner’s Camp, then anything over $12 million will handicap the team’s competitive ability. Marner will need to sign an AAV of around $10 million to enter into a similarly valuable contract with Reinhart, Kucherov, Kaprizov and others.
It was never clear that a big shakeup would be needed in Toronto. There have been multiple Knicks deals that Toronto could have made significant changes in the past few years, but Toronto leaves the reality that there is a high chance that nothing will be lost in the superstar caliber players. However, Toronto cannot afford to extend Marner on an inefficient contract, especially when considering playoff performance. Here’s how they should proceed instead:
With the expiry agreement between Marner and John Tavares, the Leaf has plenty of room to pilot. Marner’s value cannot be replaced by a single player, but wealth can be redistributed across the lineup.
Tavares is likely to be extended in Toronto, with the rumored AAV of about $5 million, an efficient contract for the middle school centre, which scored 38 goals in 2024-25. The Leafs should avoid a bridge deal for restricted free agent Matthew Neese and instead opt for a long-term deal in the $8.5 million AAV neighborhood. When combined, it costs less than Marner’s question, and the total value of the knee and Tavares exceeds Marner’s value.
Toronto should expect Easton Cowan to contribute to the middle-aged role in the entry-level contract next season. It is almost essential that Toronto GM Blood Trading Trade Trade David Kamp, Kalejan Croc, Max Domi and Nick Robertson trade. The cap space that is released by this can be used to sign Matt Duchen, Brad Merchand or Pius Star.
With its set of reconstructions, Toronto has three productive lines. The Panthers’ third line was the difference in losses in the Leafs series. That’s because the efficient contracts at the top of the Florida roster allow for a more balanced approach to the lineup.
Toronto needs players like Sam Bennett for future playoff runs…or they? Josh Lavallee/Nhli via Getty Images
Speaking of the Panthers, there are rumblings of the leaves that are just interested in Sam Bennett. It’s easy to understand why, but let’s remember the player Bennett was in front of Florida. In his previous role as Flames GM in Treliving, he was unable to find the game, so he swapped out Calgary Bennett for spare parts. Bennett fits perfectly in Florida, but much of his value comes from extracurricular activities, as opposed to offensive production. If these extracurricular activities are punished more heavily, they will lose their worth.
Consider the Tavares, who scored 38 goals and 74 points this season, are likely to sign around $5 million. Bennett has recorded a career high of 51 points this season. Bennett is young, but he signs him to a contract worth 1.5 times that of Tavares – 0.68 points per game in Florida and 0.48 points per game in his career – is devastating.
It’s absolutely right that Florida doesn’t want to pay Bennett more than $7 million a year. This is already slightly bloated. Given Florida’s success over the past few years, it would be wise for maple leaves to follow these signals. The $7.5 million AAV is inefficient, but it’s easy to manage if Bennett’s extracurricular activities think that the hockey team won’t get any more attention in the third market with first, second and third coverage. If Bennett’s camp gets pushed further, the Reef would be better off looking elsewhere. Targeting Pius Suter or Matt Duchene on July 1st to coordinate the Mason Marchment trade with Dallas – with a theoretical example of a more balanced approach.
Regardless of which particular player is added in contract or trade, the maple leaf should balance forward depths and refrain from signing inefficient contracts. There are too many things in the book, and the leaves will do well to extract themselves from some of them. The best teams don’t compete for one or two players. That’s true even with the Oilers (though it certainly helps to have McDavid and Draysightle).
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Instead, the best teams compete every year. Because the best players outweigh the contracts and the depth of the lineup provides a quality fraction as management can get better players to balance. The current example is Florida’s third line and Edmonton depths, including Corey Perry, Jake Walman and Conor Brown. Dallas was able to acquire the superstar with Micco Lantanen due to the efficient contracts of Loop Hints, Thomas Hurley and Matt Duchene.
Toronto needs to be ruthless – the way the Tampa Bay Lightning operated during the consecutive Stanley Cup runs, and the way the Vegas Golden Knights exist.
If players are not willing to sign what a team needs to succeed, they will not become a leaf. Important trade protections for non-top six forwards or top four defensive men must be a thing of the past. While 8 or 10 teams non-trade clauses for third-line players are easy to manage, the day must be completed to resume trade protection levels for bottom pair defenders, David Kamp, Kalejan Krock, Ryan and others. By providing trade protection to players that can be easily exchanged every summer, you cannot manipulate your ability to move.
For the Leaf to win, they need to focus on pursuing contract efficiency, which probably means losing pure talent in the short term to create a more balanced, long-term approach that has worked very well for other clubs.
