When Donald Trump met President Zelensky in New York last September, the then-US presidential candidate exuded confidence that he could lead the war in Ukraine early. “If we win, I think we’re going to resolve it very quickly,” he said.
How fast does he change over time? During a TV debate a few days ago, Trump had promised that he would “settle it before I become president.” This was an escalation of his previous commitment in May 2023 to stop the battle in the first 24 hours of his presidency.
Trump has now been in office for more than two months, and Penny may be beginning to fall in the White House, which is about to end a bitter and complicated conflict as long as this takes time.
In a TV interview last weekend, the US president admitted that he was “a bit ironic” when he promised to end the war in one day.
There are many reasons why Team Trump is making slower progress than expected.
First, the President’s belief in his personal one-on-one diplomacy power may be misguided. He has long believed that if he sits with another leader and agrees to a deal, he can solve international issues. Trump first spoke with Vladimir Putin on February 12th. It’s an hour and a half conversation he described as “very productive.” The two leaders spoke again on March 18th.
However, it is clear that these calls failed to secure the 30-day interim ceasefire that Trump had hoped for. The only substantial concession he narrowed down from Putin was his promise to end Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities.
Second, the Russian president has made it clear that he is not in a hurry. His first public comments on the negotiations came at a press conference last week, a month after his call with Trump.
Putin has shown he is determined to oppose the US two-stage strategy of calling for a temporary ceasefire before talking about the long-term settlement. Instead, he must announce what he considers as the “root cause of war”: his fears and the very existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state, poses a threat to Russia’s security. He also set detailed questions and conditions that must be answered and met before the transaction is agreed to.
Third, the US strategy to first focus on Ukraine may be misunderstood. The White House has believed that President Zelensky is a barrier to peace. Western diplomats have admitted that the Ukrainian government is slow to realize how much the world has changed with Trump’s arrival.
But when Trump and his vice president, JD Vance, tormented the Ukrainian leaders, they consumed US pressure on Kiev, which led to the now-notorious conflict in the oval office – time, effort, and political capital.
It also broke transatlantic relations and brought Europe and the United States into conflict. All the while, Vladimir Putin sat down and enjoyed the show, biting his time.
Fourth, the complete complexity of conflicts makes resolution difficult. Ukraine’s offer initially called for a temporary ceasefire in the air and at sea. The idea was that this was relatively easy to monitor.
However, in a speech in Jeddah last week, the US argued that even an immediate ceasefire should include front lines that are more than 1,200 km long in the eastern region. Soon we have achieved logistics that verify that ceasefires become more complicated. Of course, this was rejected by Putin.
But even his agreement on a more modest proposal, even ending an attack on energy infrastructure, is not without its problems. That’s details of that proposal, which accounts for a large part of the technology negotiations expected to take place in Saudi Arabia on Monday. Military and energy experts will create a detailed list of potential power plants that may be protected.
They also try to agree which weapon systems should not be used. However, it can take some time to agree on the differences between energy and other private infrastructure. Remember: Ukraine and Russia are not talking to each other. They are involved individually and on both sides with the US, which they promise to shuttle between them. This will be added again in time.
Fifth, the United States focuses on the economic benefits of a ceasefire that distracts attention from its priorities of ending a ceasefire. Trump spent his time trying to agree to a framework deal that would provide us with corporate access to Ukraine’s key minerals. Some view this as the US is investing in Ukraine’s future. Others are forcing the country’s natural resources.
President Zelensky argued that he could first agree to the deal only if the US promised to provide Ukraine with a security guarantee to stop future Russian attacks. The White House refused, saying that the presence of US mining companies and workers would adequately deter them. In the end, Zelensky admitted defeat and said he would agree to the mineral trade without security guarantees. But nonetheless, the US has yet to sign the contract and hopes to improve the terms, possibly by including access or ownership of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants.
Ending wars can be complicated and time consuming. We wouldn’t have reached this stage without Trump’s push, but progress was not as quick or simple as he believed. When he campaigned for the presidency in December 2018, Volodymyr Zelensky proposed that negotiations with Vladimir Putin would be very easy. “We need to talk in a very simple way,” he told Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Gordon. “‘What do you want?’ And I say to them: ‘Here is our point.’ I agree somewhere in the middle. ”
Now, the evidence from the last two months may be even more difficult.
